In recent years, geopolitical risk has seeped into every part of the international system and the operating environment for business. US-China rivalry, conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East, a more emboldened Russia testing the flank of NATO, and accelerating climate disruption are combining to reshape the world as we know it. For global business, the challenge is twofold: mitigate today’s volatility, and set the groundwork to build resilience for what might come next.
Predicting the future is no easy feat though. No one has a crystal ball and nothing is certain. However, by examining how political, economic, security, and social dynamics between nations and regions could unfold over time, geopolitical scenario analysis can help us understand the different pathways that might emerge.
